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October 16, 2020
Recorded mortgages during the third quarter continued at an amazingly strong pace. Fannie Mae recently predicted that by the end of the year, 2020 will be the best year on record for mortgage originations. Our local market shows the same signs. (chart pages 9 & 10)
The average Monroe County loan volume also continues to climb. (chart page 13) No doubt this is a factor of both increased borrowing power of low interest rates and also the significant appreciation of home values creating more equity for refinancers and higher prices for home buyers.
The Monroe County purchase market is only slightly behind last year. (chart page 17) If the fourth quarter deed recordings only equal 2019’s fourth quarter, the market, in the middle of a pandemic, will only be off about 4% from last year. Any improvement during the last quarter will completely erase the effect of the market slowdown in April and May.
In case you’re wondering, there is a reason the Foreclosure and Sheriff’s Deed charts are omitted from this and the previous report. Due to State and Federal COVID-19 related moratoriums and the Monroe County courthouse closing, no new foreclosures were started between late March and late August. Since then only five new foreclosures show up until September 30th. The last Sheriff’s sale conducted was in February. So, there’s nothing really to report.
September allowed us the privilege to help 540 people buy, sell or refinance their properties. Our title team in September averaged 6.2 days to issue new Monroe County title commitments. Our closing team produced seller side closing statements two or more days prior to closing in 89.2% of their transactions.
Finally, we are delighted for Amy Thomas, one of our Real Estate Closers, who yesterday received the Affiliate of the Year Award from the Bloomington Board of Realtors®. Amy’s commitment to making every closing an outstanding experience for our clients is clear to us every day. We are grateful that the BBOR membership chose to recognize Amy for her consistently exceptional efforts.
~ John Bethell
September 21, 2020
The Monroe County purchase market not only continued its recovery from the pandemic induced lows of May and June. In fact, the market appears to be making up for lost time. This is evidenced by the fact that sales in August, as measured by recorded deeds, showed an 11% percent gain over August of 2019, widening the positive differential of the previous month. (graph page 7) Early returns thru September 10th (small sample size alert) show an even larger year over year improvement in excess of 40% – 83 deeds to 58 deeds.
Low interest rates continue to fuel refinancing. Most lenders are enjoying their largest origination volumes since 2013. With the Fed recently stating that it will keep interest rates at this level for several years, these volumes will continue into next year and hopefully beyond.
Our teams are adjusted to these higher volumes. In August, the Closing Team produced seller side closing statements two or more days prior to closing in 91% of our transactions. Even with limited access to the county offices, our title commitment turn time for Monroe County orders averaged 7.1 days. And we helped 603 people buy, sell or refinance their properties.
~ John Bethell
August 24, 2020
How impactful is the current refinance market in Monroe County? On page four of this month’s report you’ll see that 3541 is the total number of mortgages recorded through July 31st of this year. That number on July 31st of last year: 2557. Almost 1000 more mortgage recordings in 2020 so far. That’s a lot of refinancing. How does that compare to other recent years? During all of 2017 and 2018 there were 3472 and 3406 recorded mortgages, respectively.
There’s still plenty of opportunity though. From 2016 through 2019 I estimate that there were between 6000 and 7000 purchase transactions with first mortgage financing. Even with the 1000 additional mortgages this year, there’s still a lot of homeowners that will benefit from refinancing.
The chart on page seven compares recorded deeds through July to the same period last year. As you can see, after a big decline in May due to the pandemic, sale transactions recovered in June and July and are now comparable to the level of activity a year ago.
This year, through July, we helped 3331 people buy, sell or refinance their properties. We are grateful to all our clients for providing us with the opportunity to assist that many people reach personal and financial milestones.
Thank you so much!
~ John Bethell
July 22. 2020
I’m currently taking time away from the business and will return in early August. I’ll resume my commentary next month.
Be Smart. Be Safe
~ John Bethell
June 17, 2020
Mortgage transactions for the first five months of 2020 are up a whopping 62% over 2019 totals (1860 vs 1149 for mortgages securing loans between $75K & $510K). The refinancing increase is partially offset by the decline in purchase originations that showed up considerably in May.
I included a simple chart at the end of this month’s report that shows recorded deeds through May, comparing this year and last. The decline in May deed recordings, which reflects market activity in the prior four to six weeks is stark.
In our own book of business, new purchases picked up starting in early May but are still well below normal. Since Indiana adopted Stage 4 of the Governor’s COVID-19 reopening plan, we’ve seen another modest increase in new purchases.
The Monroe County Courthouse partially reopened with limited access earlier this week. We still have a few transactions that can not be completed without accessing their records. We’re confident that towards the end of June, those orders will be completed.
Thank you for your continued patience!
~ John Bethell
May 20, 2020
Included with this April’s mortgage numbers are two charts incorporating sales disclosure data for the first quarter of 2020. This data was unavailable to me until recently. These charts show that through the first three months of 2020, Monroe County transfers were about the same as in 2019.
A quick check of sales disclosure data from April 1st through May 15th tells a much different story. The effects of COVID-19 on purchase transactions is now evident. In April 2020, sales disclosures were down 20% from April 2019; 198 from 246. The first half of May shows an even more pronounced decline of 41%; 79 from 133. By May 1st, most of the transactions in process prior to the governor’s stay at home order were completed. Transactions closing now were started after the order was issued.
Nevertheless, the pace of new purchase contracts seems to be starting a recovery. Our own book of business since May 1st reflects that recovery but overall is still less than we’d expect at this time of year. Most of these new transactions are scheduled to close after June 1st.
Fortunately for all of us, the new refinance business is still robust, although less than the levels experienced four to six weeks ago.
Since mid-March, courthouse closures are preventing us from finishing only about 2% of the orders we’ve received. As courthouses start to reopen, we’ll be able to slowly address this situation. We appreciate your continued patience.
Our team is performing well and getting better every day with our COVID-19 protocols and processes. During April our closing team provided seller side closing statements 2 or more days prior to closing in 88% of our transactions while averaging 4.4 days prior to closing. Our title team continues to adjust to working from home. Each of the last few weeks they’ve improved and Monroe County commitments issued last week averaged a 4.5 day turnaround time. In April we helped 526 people buy, sell or refinance their homes. A remarkable number under the circumstances!
We are grateful for your support always, but especially so the last eight weeks.
Be Smart. Be Safe.
~ John Bethell
March 24, 2019
My, how quickly things can change.
As recently as two weeks ago, 2020 was shaping up to be a tremendous year. Now . . . the next few months will be challenging on many levels, both personal and professional, for most of us.
Anecdotally, the purchase market is showing signs of a significant slowdown. I’ll be watching our order counts and new MLS data from the Realtors® for real numbers. The recent volatility of interest rates is adversely affecting refinance volume as well.
I am optimistic that both markets are only being delayed, not permanently changed.
If you are not receiving our frequent updates about how COVID-19 is affecting our closing protocols, please email customerservice@johnbtitle.com.
For now, we remain open and ready to help you and your clients.
Be smart. Be safe. We’re all in this together.
~ John Bethell
February 18, 2020
Through the first five weeks of 2020 our percentage of refinance orders relative to our overall order count is continuing at the same level as it was the second half of last year. Refinances are about 30% of all of our orders. Steady mortgage interest rates over the same seven plus months clearly is the reason why.
If your client asked what rates will do later this year, how do you answer that question? Here’s two links to check out.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/
The above link to Mortgage News Daily lists a variety of articles that can be used to support just about any answer that you want to give. How convenient!
If you want to take a contrarian, but bullish position, check out this link from Housing Wire.
The one thing we do know for sure is that right now there’s an opportunity. We can all get a good start in 2020 and make this our best year ever, so far!
In January we helped 283 people buy, sell or refinance their properties. Our title team produced new commitments in an average of 4.9 days. Our closing team provided seller side closing statements two or more days prior to closing in 96% of our transactions.
After January, recorded purchase transactions (deeds) are over 20% stronger than last year. Of course, small sample size caveats are in order. I’ll be watching this comparison closely in the coming weeks!
~ John Bethell
January 24, 2020
Happy New Year!
Quick observations from the final 2019 mortgage and deed recordings.
• As we all know, the inventory shortage of existing homes is real. Judging from recorded deeds for the last four years (page 7), the Monroe County market seems capped at about 2600 transactions per year.
• Look at any of the mortgage charts (except under $50,000) and it’s apparent that 2019’s second half drop interest rates produced significant mortgage volume. This resulted in the strongest year for mortgage originations since 2012.
• The sales disclosure data for both primary and non-primary residence sales continues to show increased numbers at the higher bracket (pages 16 & 17). Yet more evidence that the existing home inventory shortage is causing values to increase.
• The spike in November Sheriff’s Deeds is a result of fifteen separate deeds involving one borrower and not indicative of any permanent trend.
John Bethell Title is experiencing one of its strongest January’s ever for new contracts. It appears that the market is starting to take off even earlier this year. So, take a deep breath and get ready for an early spring market!
In 2019 we helped 5,139 people buy, sell or refinance their homes and other properties. The opportunity to help that many people is a gift. One that we don’t take for granted. Thank you to our professional clients for letting us be a part of your success. Here’s to an even better 2020 for all of us!
~ John Bethell
December 18, 2019
At this time of year, I always find myself reflecting on where our company came from, where it is today and where I want to be next year. The one constant in all three places is the value of the relationships we enjoy with our customers. Our clients drive our success. They appreciate our efforts. And they do us the favor of coaching us about where we can be better.
I am grateful to each and every one for the opportunity to help them guide their clients to buy, sell or refinance their property. I am even more grateful for the relationships we enjoy with each one of you.
On behalf of my entire team, thank you for these opportunities and relationships. We hope that your 2019 is your best year ever, so far! And, we hope that you’ll reach even higher milestones in 2020.
Happy Holidays to you and your families!
~ John Bethell