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March 11, 2021
Is the refinance boom over? Yes, mortgage rates are higher than a few months ago. Yes, the trend line is heading the wrong direction. My experience over the last forty years includes eight or nine “rates will never be this low again” refinance markets. In each one I can recall that refinance volume continued strong for quite a while after rates hit the bottom of that cycle. Some people will always be late to the party.
I still believe that by the fourth quarter, refinance volume will start to return to pre-pandemic levels, which we thought were pretty strong back then. The refinance boom is not over, but we won’t be quite as busy in 2021.
In February, the Indiana Chamber of Commerce named John Bethell Title as one of the top 125 places to work in the State of Indiana. I am especially proud of our team and they are well deserving of this recognition. Each one of them contributes to making JBT a great place to work. And in turn that makes JBT a great place for each of our clients to work with.
Despite last month’s winter storm, we still managed help over 350 people to buy, sell or refinance their properties. Since the pandemic started, we helped over 6000 people. A number that twelve months ago I would have considered unattainable. I am grateful to all our clients for their patience and support during this time. Today, there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. I can’t wait to get there!
Enjoy the spring!
~ John Bethell
February 12, 2021
Mortgage activity continued strong through January. Especially refinancing. The purchase market, by seasonal standards, is also active despite the severe lack of inventory. It is still too early to predict how 2021 will turn out, but one thing we can count on is taxes.
The 2020 pay in 2021 real estate taxes will become official and available in a few weeks. Here’s a link to the State Budget Order for Monroe County. It details the levy for each taxing district in the county.
Monroe County Budget Order.
Once the taxes become official and available, we’ll begin using those amounts for all prorations unless otherwise instructed. When able, we will also pay those taxes at closing. Over the next few months, taxes will be prorated, paid and escrowed in a variety of ways. If you or your clients are unsure or confused about how taxes are being treated in a transaction, your Closer will be happy to assist you.
In January our team helped over 400 people to buy, sell or refinance their properties. An amazingly large number for January. We are grateful to all our clients for the opportunity to help so many people move onto new housing opportunities or improve their financial situation.
~ John Bethell
January 22, 2021
What a crazy year we experienced! New mortgage recordings hit a high not seen since 2004 and 2005 when new construction boomed and anyone that could fog a mirror qualified for a no down payment sub-prime mortgage. The effect of rising home prices is clearly evident by the steady increase in average loan amounts. (chart page 8) More evidence of such is the doubling of owner-occupied sales over $200,000 in the last six years. (chart page 19)
The purchase market as evidenced by deed recordings cratered in May after we all stayed at home in April only to rebound twice in the last seven months and finish with an annual total about the same as each of the previous four years. (see charts pages7 & 15) This supports my personal theory that until there is a change in the City of Bloomington’s restrictive work force housing development policies, the resulting low inventory will cap the purchase market at around 2600 sales per year. Even a moderate weakening of demand won’t change that much. Sellers may experience fewer multiple offer situations, but there’ll still be enough buyers to support this level of activity.
I am excited for 2021 and the promise it holds to be very good for mortgage originations. While the number of refinances may drop off over the course of the year, the consistently good purchase market will keep us all busy.
Thank you for all your support and kind words through the ups and downs of 2020. Our team is well prepared for 2021 and will continue to make your closing experience outstanding!
~ John Bethell
November 20, 2020
The challenges of 2020 make me more thankful than ever for the small, normal moments of our lives that in every other year pass without much notice. Sitting in my office, watching friends come in for closings, engaging them in conversation, hugs and handshakes. Just a minute or a few. Connecting. Email, phone calls and Zoom are ok but they are no substitute for face to face encounters. These are the moments that I look forward to returning, for now, I appreciate them much more than ever. And I will give them the importance they deserve when the time comes.
I am thankful for the support and encouragement of our clients. I am thankful for the efforts and success of the JBT team in adapting to completely new ways to produce and deliver our services. I am inspired by the optimism and ingenuity that I witnessed.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone important in your life!
~ John Bethell
October 16, 2020
Recorded mortgages during the third quarter continued at an amazingly strong pace. Fannie Mae recently predicted that by the end of the year, 2020 will be the best year on record for mortgage originations. Our local market shows the same signs. (chart pages 9 & 10)
The average Monroe County loan volume also continues to climb. (chart page 13) No doubt this is a factor of both increased borrowing power of low interest rates and also the significant appreciation of home values creating more equity for refinancers and higher prices for home buyers.
The Monroe County purchase market is only slightly behind last year. (chart page 17) If the fourth quarter deed recordings only equal 2019’s fourth quarter, the market, in the middle of a pandemic, will only be off about 4% from last year. Any improvement during the last quarter will completely erase the effect of the market slowdown in April and May.
In case you’re wondering, there is a reason the Foreclosure and Sheriff’s Deed charts are omitted from this and the previous report. Due to State and Federal COVID-19 related moratoriums and the Monroe County courthouse closing, no new foreclosures were started between late March and late August. Since then only five new foreclosures show up until September 30th. The last Sheriff’s sale conducted was in February. So, there’s nothing really to report.
September allowed us the privilege to help 540 people buy, sell or refinance their properties. Our title team in September averaged 6.2 days to issue new Monroe County title commitments. Our closing team produced seller side closing statements two or more days prior to closing in 89.2% of their transactions.
Finally, we are delighted for Amy Thomas, one of our Real Estate Closers, who yesterday received the Affiliate of the Year Award from the Bloomington Board of Realtors®. Amy’s commitment to making every closing an outstanding experience for our clients is clear to us every day. We are grateful that the BBOR membership chose to recognize Amy for her consistently exceptional efforts.
~ John Bethell
September 21, 2020
The Monroe County purchase market not only continued its recovery from the pandemic induced lows of May and June. In fact, the market appears to be making up for lost time. This is evidenced by the fact that sales in August, as measured by recorded deeds, showed an 11% percent gain over August of 2019, widening the positive differential of the previous month. (graph page 7) Early returns thru September 10th (small sample size alert) show an even larger year over year improvement in excess of 40% – 83 deeds to 58 deeds.
Low interest rates continue to fuel refinancing. Most lenders are enjoying their largest origination volumes since 2013. With the Fed recently stating that it will keep interest rates at this level for several years, these volumes will continue into next year and hopefully beyond.
Our teams are adjusted to these higher volumes. In August, the Closing Team produced seller side closing statements two or more days prior to closing in 91% of our transactions. Even with limited access to the county offices, our title commitment turn time for Monroe County orders averaged 7.1 days. And we helped 603 people buy, sell or refinance their properties.
~ John Bethell
August 24, 2020
How impactful is the current refinance market in Monroe County? On page four of this month’s report you’ll see that 3541 is the total number of mortgages recorded through July 31st of this year. That number on July 31st of last year: 2557. Almost 1000 more mortgage recordings in 2020 so far. That’s a lot of refinancing. How does that compare to other recent years? During all of 2017 and 2018 there were 3472 and 3406 recorded mortgages, respectively.
There’s still plenty of opportunity though. From 2016 through 2019 I estimate that there were between 6000 and 7000 purchase transactions with first mortgage financing. Even with the 1000 additional mortgages this year, there’s still a lot of homeowners that will benefit from refinancing.
The chart on page seven compares recorded deeds through July to the same period last year. As you can see, after a big decline in May due to the pandemic, sale transactions recovered in June and July and are now comparable to the level of activity a year ago.
This year, through July, we helped 3331 people buy, sell or refinance their properties. We are grateful to all our clients for providing us with the opportunity to assist that many people reach personal and financial milestones.
Thank you so much!
~ John Bethell
July 22. 2020
I’m currently taking time away from the business and will return in early August. I’ll resume my commentary next month.
Be Smart. Be Safe
~ John Bethell
June 17, 2020
Mortgage transactions for the first five months of 2020 are up a whopping 62% over 2019 totals (1860 vs 1149 for mortgages securing loans between $75K & $510K). The refinancing increase is partially offset by the decline in purchase originations that showed up considerably in May.
I included a simple chart at the end of this month’s report that shows recorded deeds through May, comparing this year and last. The decline in May deed recordings, which reflects market activity in the prior four to six weeks is stark.
In our own book of business, new purchases picked up starting in early May but are still well below normal. Since Indiana adopted Stage 4 of the Governor’s COVID-19 reopening plan, we’ve seen another modest increase in new purchases.
The Monroe County Courthouse partially reopened with limited access earlier this week. We still have a few transactions that can not be completed without accessing their records. We’re confident that towards the end of June, those orders will be completed.
Thank you for your continued patience!
~ John Bethell