Mortgage Market Share Report – April 2010

??We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!?

~ Doug Adams

Trying to figure out what?s in store the next few months for the local mortgage finance industry? Good luck with that! The only certainty is conflicting influences. The spring home purchase market is stronger but will it be offset by expiring federal homebuyer tax credits? A return to fifty-year low mortgage interest rates in the face of the Federal Reserve discontinuing its purchasing of mortgage backed securities? How does that happen? And let?s not forget that many mortgage borrowers who could benefit from refinancing no longer qualify for new loans due to more restrictive underwriting guidelines.

The purchase market through April (as measured by recorded deeds) improved by about thirty-three percent over the same four months of 2009?508 versus 382 last year. But that is well short of the 672 deeds in 2008. And we thought 2008 was weak! The federal homebuyer tax credits certainly accelerated home buying. There?s little evidence though that the credits actually increased the number of buyers in the market. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that new purchase applications fell to their lowest weekly level in thirteen years just two weeks following the tax credit April 30th deadline. In our own shop, we have very few purchase orders in the pipeline with post June 30th closing dates. Let?s hope that all we experience is a mere slowdown and not a grinding halt.

Mortgage interest rates for 30-year fixed rate loans are returning yet again to sub-five percent levels. This contradicts all the conventional wisdom earlier this year. Most experts thought that rates would increase once the Federal Reserve got out of investing in mortgage backed securities. I?m guessing we can thank the European debt crisis for them actually declining. Somehow though, the phrase ?flight to quality? doesn?t have the same ring to it as in years past, does it?

According to the Wall Street Journal? this week, larger markets are already seeing an increase in refinancing. Maybe we will too? Unfortunately there are still many borrowers diligently making their monthly payments on their mortgages at higher interest rates. These borrowers are not able to benefit from refinancing because they no longer qualify for the mortgage they have. Their equity is not enough, their credit score is no longer satisfactory, or their property will no longer appraise. This reality is clearly evidenced in the ten year low of local mortgage originations so far this year. There appears no solution. Fear of making a bad loan is stronger today than the benefits of making a good loan.

The market could turn in a lot of ways. I won?t be surprised to see purchase activity slow down significantly until people realize that even without a tax credit, low rates make it a great time to buy. I?m optimistic that refinancing will increase some.

The only thing that I?m sure of though is that I?m not sure of anything.

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