Mortgage Market Share Report July 2011

This morning I read my weekly ?Outside the Box?newsletter from financial analyst John Mauldin. He discussed in some detail the history of the mortgage crisis and the benefits to the average citizen that refinancing would bring?especially the additional disposable income that could be spent and thus stimulate the economy. He pointed out that Fannie, Freddie, and the big institutional investors that own the existing mortgage backed paper do not want to see a surge in prepayments that could result from the Federal Reserve?s low interest rate policies. The investment losses from prepaying all those six percent mortgages they hold would be quite extraordinary. And since Fannie and Freddie are owned by us taxpayers, the bailout cost would increase dramatically. Mr. Mauldin quoted colleagues who went so far as to suggest that the tightened credit standards might be a premeditated way to control the rate of prepayments.

Policy makers, especially those up for re-election soon, feel the need to do something. And just as clearly Fannie, Freddie and the investment community want to avoid massive prepayments. I?m not certain how these competing interests will play out, but my vote would be to find a way to increase the availability of refinancing opportunities to more homeowners. The resulting lower payments would enable consumers to increase spending. This spending would stimulate the economy more than any other idea that?s been suggested.

~John Bethell