Mortgage Market Share Report – March 2010

Never mistake activity for achievement.? ~ John Wooden

In? the? real? estate? finance? business? there?s? still? a? disproportionate? amount? of? energy? being? expended?relative?to?the?number?of?loans?being?made.?Of?that?I?m?certain?after?looking?at?the first?quarter?numbers.?Our?historical?barometer,?mortgages?with?a?stated?amount?between?$50K? and?$500K,?was?only?marginally?better?than?2008?s?dreary?fourth?quarter.?In?fact?the?totals?are? the? smallest? first? quarter? in? the? last? ten? years.? Yet? due? to? new? compliance? and? regulatory? overhead,?we?all?feel?like?we?re?treading?water.

As?far?as?the?federal?homebuyer?tax?credits?are?concerned,?there?s?no?evidence?yet?that?they?re? actually?bringing?more?buyers?into?our?market.?A?closer?look?at?the?sales?disclosures?filed?with? the? State? of? Indiana? Department? of? Local? Government? Finance? in? the? first? quarter? of? 2010? is? enlightening.?Surprisingly?to?me,?the?number?of?disclosures?that?designated?the?property?as?the buyer?s?new?residence?is?almost?identical?to?the?number?filed?as?such?in?the?first?quarter?of?2009.
(see?chart)

Encouraging? though? is? that? the? trend? of? new? foreclosures? being? started? in? Monroe? County continues? to? decline.? Eventually? that? will? be? reflected? in? a? smaller? number? of? homes? lost? at sheriff?s?sale.?As?the?overall?real?estate?market?improves,?more?foreclosure?victims?will?be?able?to sell?out?of?their?troubles.

The?biggest?drag?on?the?market?seems?to?be?in?the?higher?price?ranges.?I?included?a?chart?this month? of? mortgages? with? a? stated? amount? between? $417,001? (the? confirming? loan? limit)? and $1,500,000.?Several?years?ago?these??jumbo??loans?were?the?darling?of?mortgage?investors.?Post financial?crisis?though,?there?s?been?very?little?money?available?in?this?market?segment.?Although
not?great?in?Monroe?County?s?overall?numbers,?this?lack?of?availability?is?sitting?like?an?anvil?on the?entire?top?half?of?the?market.?It?prevents?move?up?buyers?from?financing?purchases?and?is significantly?responsible?for?the?current?over?abundance?of?home?choices?in?upper?price?ranges.

The? homebuyer? tax? credits? are? expiring? and? the? Fed? is? no? longer? purchasing? mortgage? backed securities.? The? second? quarter? will? be? very? telling.? I?ll? be? watching? closely? to? see? the? effects
locally? on? the? number? of? transactions.? Hopefully? recent? optimism? will? be? fulfilled? and? the problem?areas?of?the?market?may?ease.

~John?Bethell